Members of the big four are in action again this week in Basel namely Federer and Nadal. They are not in the same half of the draw however and I guess as usual we won’t see them play which hasn’t happened for almost two years now. It’s not entirely out of the question that they can meet in the final, but the draw has made that difficult. I guess Brennwald didn’t want Federer to meet Nadal where he has the best chance of still beating Nadal.
The rivalry has really turned into a nightmare for Federer since 2012 because he lost the last five meetings with Nadal including losses at Cincinnati and the World Tour Finals, but you’d figure at least with the way he has played this year he still had a shot in Basel of beating Nadal. But with Nadal back on the upswing it looks like Federer is back on the downswing. The signs have already been there is Asia for both.
Federer had another big year, but he has nothing bigger than Cincinnati to show for it. If Nadal does happen to make the final in Basel I think he’d have a shot of beating Federer, but he has a long way to go. For one thing, he plays Rosol tomorrow in the first round who he lost to at Wimbledon of course. He is not the greatest indoor players so who knows who he can lose to. He probably won’t be so bad as to lose to Dimitrov, but he could play Cilic in the quarters who just won Moscow.
And should he survive that he will probably play Stan. He has improved a lot in Asia but indoors is still an issue for him so you could still see Federer doing well in Basel, Paris, and London while Nadal struggles. I don’t foresee Federer defeating Djokovic though so he has to make sure that he at least wins Basel to at least win one title in his favorite indoor season. Federer’s draw is easy too. He won’t be troubled until the final unless he is truly burned out.
I’m going to assume he makes the final and if he faces Stan or Nadal there I guess he could lose. Or maybe if Cilic is in the zone. Otherwise, he should win the title. It should be a pretty interesting week anyway. I see Stan is playing Karlovic first round and Nadal has Cilic so both of them has tough draws while Federer has it easy. So really he will have no excuse if he doesn’t win this title.
This Passing Week
In the passing week Ferrer, Cilic, and Berdych won titles in Vienna, Moscow, and Stockholm respectively so congrats to them. Especially to Ferrer who still hasn’t qualified for London but by winning the only ATP 500 event this week he pretty much guaranteed his spot. He is in eighth place and with Nishikori ahead of him in seventh are the two players who have not booked their spots yet, but it is surely just a question of time.
London is going to be interesting especially if Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal all land in the same group. I hope at least Federer and Nadal are in the same group. But I’m not betting on it. Next week is also Paris where Djokovic and Murray will be back so that promises to be another big one. I don’t think Federer can get back to #2 if he wins Basel this week, but I’m sure he can still in Paris in which case he can still avoid being in the same group as Djokovic in London.
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